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Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia dan Volume Perdagangan Terhadap Bentuk Simetrik dan Asimetrik Volatilitas Indeks Sektoral di Indonesia

Buddi Wibowo*
Mashudi, MSi**


The objective of this research is to indetify the symmetric and asymmetric Indonesian index volatilites in presence of oil price and trading volume fluctuations as proxies for the arrival of information to the market. This research uses secondary daily data of Indonesian sector Indices from 2005-2011 as well as trading volume data and oil price of West Texas Intermadiate (WTI). The statistical modellings used the standard GARCH, GJR GARCH and EGARCH. The result shows that the present of asymmetric and leverage effect in all sectors are significant. Hence, the impact of bad news (negative return) are higher than that of good news (positive return) for a similar magnitude. The impact of oil price movement are negative and statistically significant for most of sector indices except finance and consumer goods, miscellaneous sectors. Hence, those sectors are appropriate components of sector index portfolio to dampen the oil risk. In contrast, the impacts of trading volumes are positive and statistically significant for all sector indices. Hence, The aggregated impact of both factors will be eliminated each other in several sectors. This findings support the oil price and trading volume fluctuations to be considered as useful tools for predicting conditional volatilities for most sector indices. Regarding the results of log percentage change in next day of conditional volatility using News Impact Curves (NIC) indicate that the largest decline in conditional volatility occurs when the market indices are approximately unchanged.

KEY WORDS: Index volatility, oil price, oil trading, price fluctuation

Analisis Pengaruh Kemampuan Market Selectivity, Market Timing dan Efek Dilusi Fund Flow terhadap Return Reksadana Saham
(Studi pada 10 Reksadana Saham Terbaik 2011 versi BIIU)

Yochiko Imphiami*
R. Nugroho Purwantoro**


The objectives of this study is to analyze the effects of market selectivity and market timing ability of fund managers, and also the dilution effect of fund flow from investor to the return of equity mutual funds. This study use Treynor Mazuy model which is added with the dilution effect of fund flow variable. This study focused on 10 best equity mutual fund of 2011 based on Bisnis Indonesia Intelligence Unit (BIIU) ranking. The result shows that the ten equity mutual funds did have market selectivity and market timing ability although unsignificant and there are no dilution effect found from trading activity of the mutual funds investors.

KEY WORDS: Market selectivity, market ability mutual fund, dilution effect

Pengaruh Demografi, Lingkungan dan Atribut Produk Terhadap Keputusan Konsumen Pada Pembelian Susu UHT Merek Susu Sehat di Kota Jember

Dewi Prihartini**

This research aims to investigate the influence of demographic characteristics factors as internal influencer as well as the eksternal environment and atributs of the product as external factors towards the buying decision making process on UHT fresh-milk “Susu Sehat” in Jember Distric. Using Convinience sampling method, 100 samples taken from the population. Through mail survey data were collected and analyzed using Logistic Regression. The finding shows some significance influences of independent variables on predicting the intention to buy the product. From the internal factors, only Personal income influences the intention to buy. The external environment factors; Social status and Reference significantly influence the intention to buy the product while Quality and Label are the attributes of the product that significantly influence the intention to buy.

KEY WORDS: Convenience sampling, fresh milk, logistic regression, buying decision making

Perilaku Keorganisasian Surabaya Tourism Promotion Board

Dewa Gde Satrya*


Surabaya Tourism Promotion Board (STPB) holds important roles in the advancement of Surabaya tourism. The members of this non-profit organization, funded by the budget of Surabaya City Government, comprises professionals from various fields in Surabaya. From the background, most of the members are the decision makers or top executives in hotel services, tour operators and other tourism industries, such as the general manager of a hotel, tour operator and president director of any company related to tourism. This organization also involves academicians to participate. Such profile gives unique strength for the management and performance of this vital tourism organization in Surabaya. From the view of organizational behavior, the motives of joining the STPB are far from economic interests, since the members are not paid for their work, or getting new business deals. The interests of the companies represented by the STPB members can be transform into the interest of Surabaya tourism business as a whole. Togetherness, leadership, team work and sacrifices to enhance Surabaya tourism are important findings to achieve the shared goal, making Surabaya as an international tourism destination.

KEY WORDS:  Organizational behavior, teamwork, Surabaya tourism, tourism

Application of Goal Programming Model as Decision Support System in Modern Business

Hadi Paramu*


Programmasi Tujuan Ganda (PTG) sebagai salah satu teknik khusus dari Programasi Linier dapat menyelesaikan persoalan dengan tujuan ganda (lebih dari satu). Dalam aktivitas sehari-hari, unit bisnis dapat secara praktek mempunyai beberapa tujuan yang harus dicapai dalam waktu yang bersamaa. Model PTG dapat menyelesaikan persoalan pengambilan keputusan ini dan memungkinkan pengambil keputusan untuk menentukan tingkat aktvitas tertentu yang relatif bisa memuaskan (memenuhi) semua tujuan. Artikel in mengillustrasikan bagaimana model PTG bekerja sebagai sistem pendukung keputusan dalam kaitannya dengan pencapaian tujuan ganda. Artikel ini menunjukkan bagaimana output dari PTG yang mengindikasikan ketidakcapaian di bawah atau di atas suatu tujuan target diinterpretasikan. Artikel ini juga menunjukkan bagaimana suatu simulasi prioritas dapat dilakukan dan hirarki prioritas terbaik dapat ditentukan dengan menggunakan model PTG

KEY WORDS: Program tujuan ganda, tujuan ganda, ketidakcapaian di bawah target, ketidakcapaian di atas target, urutan prioritas.

Mencegah Dampak Korupsi Dengan Pengelolaan Perijinan

Dr. Haryono Umar


Corruption is the misuse of public office for private gain." As such, it involves the improper and unlawful behaviour of public-service officials, both politicians and civil servants, whose positions create opportunities for the diversion of money and assets from government to themselves and their accomplices. Corruption affects inefficiency and state loss. Damage caused by corruption practices not only to the state budget but to the society as well. Devastation could be flooding, land slide, air pollution, poor quality of life, unemployment, poverty, and poor quality of health. Corruption affects investment, decreasing credibility, and influence economic growth. National competitiveness falls very deep as corruption increase.
Damages caused of corruption become more and more real affect the society and could be found anywhere, anytime, anything. Fighting corruption by repressive activities is not the only effort to diminish corruption. Giving sentences to the corruptors in terms of prissoned and money sanctioned are relatively minimal compare to the damages. Money back to the state is very important for improving public services and increasing the economic growth.
The victims of corruption are not only the state but also society, business community, and ofcourse the environment. A corporation could become a victim interms of loss of fail in bidding because the competitor bribed government officials. In this case, the corporation could sue the briber using the civil law for the amount of opportunity loss and transaction cost.
Ecconomyst should found the formula for quantification of damages that can be used by the law enforcers in combating corruption. The ecconomyst's contribution in combating corruption should be increase concerning the quantification of corruption proceeds so that corruption can be decreased very soon. The law makers should inniciate and establish new law for quantification of corruption proceeds so that the law enforcers could prepare the right indictment to the defendant.
Corruption in forestery is derived by illegaly granting licences. Government officials issued licenses for perpetrator forest by receiving bribes from businessman. To prevent corruption in forestery, government official should implement the licence management in properly and follow the regulation.

KEY WORDS: Quantification, damages, corruption, lincence management.


Kresnohadi Ariyoto Karnen*


We often read words that are related to the word of variable as an adverb. Usually we do not care about the true meaning when we read that in the scientific or semi scientific articles. We pretend to understand, but actually we do not. I had experience to ask to more than one students about the variable he or she mention control variable during presentation their proposals. The answer was not satisfying me. That is why I write this article concerning variable.

KEY WORDS: Variable, independent variable, dependent variable, random variable

Akankah Berhasil Swasembada Gula  Tahun 2014?

Sulastri Surono*


The article aims to analyze the government program of regarding self sufficiency of sugar in year 2014. Will it be a success or it will be unrealized plan? The writer believes that such plan will be difficult to carry on due to : 1) the current available land is only 25,000 ha, where as the self suffiency program requres 350,000 ha, a huge gap from the requirement . 2) market only absorb Rp 1.3 trillion out of Rp 4.9 trillion loan for sugar factory revitalization provided by the government. 3) declining in sugar price has divert farmer’s land from producing sugar to other commodities, resulting in higher import of sugar. Should the government insisted in executing this plan, it can only be done by importing raw sugar as input to boost up the production. However, it will cause a major suffering for our local farmers. Hence, by implementing the plan, it seems that the government chooses to protect consumers instead of farmers.

KEY WORDS: Sugar, self sufficiency of sugar


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